Canberra property prices are trending down at the moment, after reaching record-high levels earlier in the year.
Canberra’s median property price at the end of July was $925,973, according to CoreLogic. That was 1.1% lower than the month before and 0.9% lower than the quarter before – but 12.1% higher than the year before.
|
|
Sydney |
Melbourne |
Brisbane |
Adelaide |
Perth |
Hobart |
Darwin |
Canberra |
|
All Dwellings |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month |
-2.2% |
-1.5% |
-0.8% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
-1.5% |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
|
Quarter |
-4.7% |
-3.2% |
0.1% |
3.6% |
1.2% |
-1.3% |
1.9% |
-0.9% |
|
YTD |
-4.6% |
-3.1% |
8.3% |
11.6% |
4.2% |
1.0% |
4.6% |
3.5% |
|
Annual |
1.6% |
0.3% |
22.1% |
24.1% |
5.5% |
10.1% |
5.3% |
12.1% |
|
Total return |
3.4% |
3.2% |
26.4% |
28.3% |
10.0% |
14.1% |
11.9% |
16.5% |
|
Gross yield |
2.8% |
3.0% |
3.6% |
3.7% |
4.4% |
3.8% |
6.1% |
3.8% |
|
Median value |
$1,087,376 |
$791,999 |
$781,850 |
$650,047 |
$560,020 |
$723,066 |
$506,860 |
$925,973 |
Breaking things down, Canberra’s house and unit markets are performing differently.
Canberra’s median house price at the end of July was $1,047,912, which was:
- 1.4% lower than the previous month
- 1.5% lower than the previous quarter
- 10.9% higher than the previous year
Meanwhile, Canberra’s median unit price for July was $626,128, which was:
- 0.2% lower than the previous month
- 1.1% higher than the previous quarter
- 16.5% higher than the previous year
Of course, this is a broad overview of the entire Canberra market that conceals localised differences. Growth rates can differ from suburb to suburb, and even from street to street within individual suburbs.
Why prices are likely to fall further, but not too much
Looking ahead, it’s likely prices will continue cooling over the rest of 2022, for two reasons:
- After a boom like the one Canberra just experienced, a pullback in prices was inevitable
- Rising interest rates mean there are now fewer buyers, with less to spend
However, it’s important to put this recent correction into perspective.
Canberra’s prices are still close to record levels. Even if they fall further, they would still be high.
Back in 2001, Canberra’s median price was $198,000. Now, it’s $925,973. That’s an astonishing 368% increase. If history repeats, property prices will be much, much higher in two decades than they are today, even though there are bound to be some downturns along the way. That’s because prices never go up in a straight line.
So to answer the question of what happened to Canberra property prices during previous downturns, they followed this cycle:
- Prices went backwards for a bit
- Then they started rising again
- Then they passed the previous peak
- Then they kept rising until reaching a new peak
- Then they went backwards for a bit
Research from PropTrack illustrates the point (although it covers national property prices rather than ACT prices). Since 1990, there have been 27 years when national prices increased and just five when they decreased.
“Those downturns have never been greater than 10% in year-ended terms. And in every instance, the preceding upswing has been larger than the downturn that has followed,” according to PropTrack.
What the current market means for buyers and sellers
If you’re a buyer, you have more options than at the start of the year. However, there’s still quite a bit of competition and prices have fallen only moderately. So if you find a property you love and you dawdle or make a lowball offer, you’ll probably miss out.
If you’re a vendor, you now have to work harder to get top dollar. That means you have to get your staging, marketing and pricing right. You also need to hire a real estate agent with a strong track record, because quality agents are still able to get top dollar in a cooling market.
Jonny Warren is a great agent. He set four suburb records in the 2021-22 financial year, and was named ACT Property Marketer of the Year in 2018 and 2020. If you want to know how Jonny could help you get top dollar for your home, contact him on jonny@jonnywarren.com.au or 0431 797 891.