Canberra Quarterly Market Review

The ACT property market has entered 2025 with measured resilience this quarter. While price growth has slowed compared to the boom years, the market hasn’t stalled, it’s adjusting. 

As of May 2025, the ACT property market has shown resilience despite broader economic challenges, with prices maintaining stability and select areas demonstrating modest growth.

Where We Stand

The ACT residential property market, centered primarily around Canberra, maintains a position of relative stability compared to other Australian capital cities.

As of April 2025: 

• Median house price: $977,737
• Median unit price: $594,602
• Combined median dwelling price: $864,343
• Monthly growth (April–May): +0.4%
• Annual change (as of March): -0.5% (CoreLogic)

These figures position Canberra as the fourth most expensive housing market in the country, following Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane. While Sydney’s median house value now exceeds $1.47 million, Canberra offers a lower entry point but still commands a premium over the national average.

CoreLogic’s Home Value Index released on April 1, 2025, presents a slightly more conservative valuation, with Canberra’s median dwelling value at $854,398.

Price Trends & Market Performance

In Q1 and Q2, things have slowed. Growth is still happening but at a much more modest pace. In the first few months of the year, monthly price increases have ranged between 0.2% and 0.4%.

When you include both capital growth and rental returns, Canberra properties are currently delivering a 3.6% annual return, one of the lowest among all Australian capital cities. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad market, it just reflects current conditions and slower momentum.

Houses vs Units: A Big Price Gap

One of the most noticeable features of the ACT market is the large price difference between houses and units.

• Median house price: $977,737
• Median unit price: $594,602

That’s a gap of nearly 64% meaning houses cost significantly more than units. This shows most buyers still prefer standalone homes, but it also creates real opportunity for first-home buyers and investors who are priced out of houses. For those groups, well-located units could be a smart way into the market.

Suburb Snapshot: Where the ACT Market Is Moving

Not all areas of the ACT are moving at the same pace. While the territory as a whole remains stable, some districts are showing stronger price growth than others in early 2025.

Top-performing suburbs:

• Molonglo: Leading with 3% annual growth
• Tuggeranong: Showing modest growth of 0.2%
• Belconnen: Maintaining minimal but positive growth of 0.1%

These growth patterns indicate a shift in buyer preferences toward developing areas like Molonglo, which offers newer housing stock and planned communities.

A property report from Allhomes shows similar trends across other districts including Gungahlin, Weston Creek, Woden Valley, and more. The key takeaway? Where you buy in the ACT really matters. 

If you’re looking to invest or buy, it’s worth paying close attention to these regional differences; they can have a big impact on both short-term returns and long-term value.

Interest Rates: A Shift That Could Boost Confidence

In May 2025, the RBA cut the cash rate from 4.10% to 3.85%. This is the first rate cut in years and it could mark the start of a new cycle aimed at easing financial pressure on borrowers.

What does this mean for the ACT property market?

• Mortgage repayments may become more manageable, especially for buyers on variable loans.
• Borrowing power could improve, making it easier for some to enter or move up in the market.
• Buyer confidence might lift, particularly during the current autumn selling season.

That said, we’re still a long way from the ultra-low interest rates of the early 2020s. Lending conditions remain cautious, and banks are just starting to respond to the rate cut. So while this move is promising, its full impact won’t be felt overnight.

Affordability: Where the Pressure is Building

Even with a steady market, affording a home in the ACT is becoming tougher; especially for first-home buyers.

With the median house price in Canberra sitting at $977,737, buying a detached home is out of reach for many younger buyers. The gap between houses and units around $383,000 is driving more interest toward apartments or areas just outside the ACT where prices are more manageable.

In short, the affordability crunch is real, and it’s shaping not just what people can buy, but where and how they buy.

What’s Next for the ACT Market in the Next Quarters?

Four key forces will shape what happens next:

• Interest Rates
  The recent rate cut to 3.85% could be the first of several. If more cuts follow, expect stronger buyer demand and possibly a lift in prices, especially in lower- to mid-tier markets.

   

• Housing Supply
  The ACT government’s land release strategy will be critical. If new supply stays limited as many expect, it could keep upward pressure on prices, particularly in high-demand suburbs.

   

• Local Economic Stability
  Canberra’s economy, driven by the public sector, tends to weather national downturns better than other cities. That stability supports steady housing demand, even when broader confidence dips.

   

• Population Growth
  Migration: both international and interstate. That’s likely to increase demand for housing, especially in family-friendly and well-connected districts.

Looking ahead, the market remains balanced, but fragile. Supply limits, economic shifts, demographic trends, and further interest rate movements will decide whether we see a stronger second half or continued moderation.

For investors, homeowners, and policymakers, the message is clear: Stay informed, think long-term, and pay attention to local dynamics. 

Conclusion: A Steady First Half with Signs to Watch

As we wrap up the first half of 2025, the ACT property market has shown measured stability. Prices have held firm, growth has been modest, and confidence (though cautious) is returning thanks in part to the May interest rate cut.

In Q1 and Q2, buyers have been watchful but active, with affordability concerns influencing the move toward units and outer suburbs. The RBA’s first rate cut in years could mark a turning point—though its effects are likely to show more clearly in the second half of the year.

Gateway to the ACT: Queanbeyan, Jerrabomberra & Googong 

The regional property markets of Queanbeyan, Jerrabomberra, and Googong each offer unique dynamics, shaped by their proximity to Canberra, varying levels of urban development, and changing buyer priorities. 

QUEANBEYAN MARKET SNAPSHOT

Queanbeyan remains a strategic entry point into the ACT housing market, offering more attainable price points compared to nearby Canberra.

For price-sensitive buyers, especially first-home buyers and young families, Queanbeyan delivers strong value, with the added benefit of proximity to Canberra’s employment and services.

WHY QUEANBEYAN?

Queanbeyan appeals to a mix of young professionals, families, and ACT commuters, drawn by:

• Easy access to Canberra: ~15-minute drive to the Parliamentary Triangle
• School access: 12 primary and secondary schools within a 5km radius
• Everyday convenience: Well-established local retail and service precincts in Queanbeyan CBD

A notable constraint: 31.31% of the suburb is zoned for environmental conservation, according to Landchecker. This limits future greenfield development and supports long-term price stability by keeping supply in check.

INVESTOR SNAPSHOT

What’s driving investor interest:

• Steady demand from renters priced out of ACT suburbs

   

• Infill development opportunities, especially for house-and-land or townhouse projects in the $500k–$800k range

   

• Upcoming infrastructure: The Queanbeyan Aquatic Centre redevelopment, slated for completion in 2026, is expected to further enhance local amenity and liveability

JERRABOMBERRA MARKET SNAPSHOT

Jerrabomberra has emerged as a fast-developing suburb catering to young families and upgraders, with a strong emphasis on modern housing and lifestyle infrastructure.

High demand for new builds and growing off-plan sales have led to reduced average days on market (51 days) for completed homes.

INVESTOR SNAPSHOT

What’s driving investor interest:

• Luxury segment growth: 5-bedroom homes achieving $1.4-$1.6 million sales

• Sustainability demand: 7.1% premium for homes with solar/battery systems

• Intergenerational appeal: 23% of buyers purchasing

The recent approval of Jerrabomberra District Park (2026 completion) is expected to enhance lifestyle appeal, potentially driving 2-3% annual price growth through 2027.

GOOGONG MARKET SNAPSHOT

Googong’s transformation from farmland to planned community continues apace.

INVESTOR SNAPSHOT

What’s driving investor interest:

• Accessibility: 16 km to Canberra CBD
• Educational infrastructure: K-12 schooling on-site by 2027
• Sustainability credentials: 5-star Green Star rated utilities

What’s Next for the NSW Market in the Next Quarters?

Queanbeyan

• 2025-26 forecast: 2-3% price growth driven by infill development
• Watchpoint: Impact of Queanbeyan Road upgrade on western fringe values
• Strategy: Target renovated 1960s-70s homes for value-add potential

Jerrabomberra

• 2025-26 forecast: 1.5-2% growth with luxury segment outperformance
• Watchpoint: Heritage listing proposals for interwar properties
• Strategy: Focus on energy-efficient retrofits for premium pricing

Googong

• 2025-26 forecast: 5-6% growth as community infrastructure matures
• Watchpoint: Absorption rate of new land releases
• Strategy: Acquire properties adjacent to future town centre precinct

The NSW southern tablelands property market demonstrates resilience through diversified demand drivers, with Googong’s growth trajectory particularly noteworthy. Investors should monitor interest rate transmission effects through Q3 2025, while homebuyers may find value in Queanbeyan’s established stock and Googong’s planned communities.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, navigating these markets takes insight and that’s where we come in.

As we head into the second half of 2025, both the ACT and its neighboring NSW regions are offering clear, if contrasting signals. The Canberra market remains steady, supported by a strong local economy and the first interest rate cut in years.

Meanwhile, regional hubs like Queanbeyan, Jerrabomberra, and Googong are carving out their own momentum. These areas are not just benefiting from their proximity to Canberra, but also from targeted infrastructure investments, demographic shifts, and greater affordability. 

For buyers, the message is clear: local knowledge and smart timing matter more than ever. And for investors, diversification between stable ACT yields and high-growth NSW opportunities could offer the best of both worlds.

With on-the-ground expertise across both ACT and regional NSW, we’ll help you find the right opportunity, at the right time, in the right place.

Reach out to Jonny Warren Properties today and make your next move with confidence.

📞 0431 797 891
📩 jonny@jonnywarren.com.au
💻 www.jonnywarren.com.au